By Saleh Adamu Kwaru, MIBF, MBA, CNA, FCCSA-USA

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, often experiences a noticeable slowdown in economic activities during the first quarter (Q1) of each year. This phenomenon, observed consistently over the past decade, raises important questions about the underlying causes and implications. The slowdown affects various sectors of the economy, from agriculture and manufacturing to services and retail, impacting growth rates and economic stability. Understanding the reasons behind this seasonal dip is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate its effects and ensure sustained economic progress throughout the year. Consequently, this exploration is aimed at only uncovering the key factors contributing to the Q1 economic slowdown in Nigeria.

Government Fiscal Year-End
The Nigerian government operates on a calendar fiscal year, meaning that the budget cycle ends in December. Ministries, departments, and agencies rush to utilize their allocated funds before the end of the year, often leading to a spike in government spending in Q4. Consequently, there’s a lull in spending in Q1 as new budgets are prepared and approved. This delay in government expenditure impacts overall economic activity.

Consumer Spending Patterns
The holiday season in Q4, including Christmas and New Year celebrations, leads to a surge in consumer spending on goods and services. This increased spending includes purchases of food, clothing, gifts, travel, and entertainment. After the holiday season, consumers tend to reduce their spending to recover financially, leading to a slowdown in economic activity in Q1.

Agricultural Cycle
Agriculture plays a significant role in Nigeria’s economy. The peak harvest season occurs in Q4, providing increased agricultural output and income for farmers. Following the harvest, the agricultural sector slows down as farmers focus on land preparation in last stage of Q1. This seasonal cycle results in reduced agricultural productivity and economic contribution during the first quarter.

Oil Sector Dynamics
Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on the oil sector. Fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels can impact the economy significantly. The oil industry may experience variations in output and revenue due to maintenance schedules, regulatory changes, or geopolitical factors. These variations can influence economic performance in Q1.

Business Planning and Activities
Many businesses undertake strategic planning, inventory management, and budget reviews at the beginning of the year. This period is often used for setting goals, assessing performance, and making adjustments. As a result, business activities may slow down temporarily while companies align their operations and strategies for the new year.

External Factors
Global economic conditions, trade relations, and geopolitical events can also affect Nigeria’s economy. External shocks, such as changes in commodity prices, exchange rates, or international trade policies, can influence economic performance. Additionally, any significant global events or crises may have spillover effects on Nigeria’s economy, impacting Q1 performance.

Sectoral Contributions
Key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and services may experience seasonal variations in output and demand. For example, construction activities may slow down during certain weather conditions, while the service sector may see reduced demand for tourism-related services post-holiday season.

Policy and Reform Implementation
Government policies and economic reforms often take time to implement and yield results. Initiatives aimed at diversifying the economy, improving. infrastructure, or enhancing business environments may face initial delays and challenges. The impact of these policies may not be immediately visible in Q1, contributing to slower economic growth.

Tackling these issues demands a holistic strategy, which involves diversifying the economy, encouraging sustainable agricultural methods, improving fiscal planning and management, and enacting policies that ensure steady economic activity throughout the year. Indeed, by understanding and mitigating the reasons for the Q1 economic slowdown, Nigeria can build a more resilient and dynamic economy that prospers throughout the year.

Saleh Adamu Kwaru,
Is a retired staff of Central Bank of Nigeria.

By Engr. H.Y. Sa’id

Nura Zakaria Gwarzo, a prominent politician and businessman, has been a pillar of strength and inspiration to many in his community. Despite being a sickle cell patient, Nura has always defied the odds, living a life filled with purpose, passion, and philanthropy. His infectious smile and unwavering optimism have touched countless lives, earning him a reputation as a kind-hearted and generous individual.

Nura’s Philanthropic Efforts

Nura’s commitment to giving back to his community is evident in his numerous philanthropic endeavors. He has sponsored the medical treatment of several individuals, including a relative who received treatment for over a year at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital (AKTH). He also facilitated the emergency medical evacuation of another person to Egypt for urgent medical attention. These selfless acts of kindness have made a significant impact on the lives of those he has helped.

A Desperate Cry for Help

Tragically, Nura’s own health has taken a drastic turn. He has been bedridden for almost a year, battling a series of debilitating health challenges. His struggles began with anemia, which required him to undergo multiple blood transfusions, receiving over 13 pints of blood in a single month. Further complications led to the diagnosis of chronic osteomyelitis, a bacterial infection of the bone, which necessitated a series of surgeries.

The medical journey has been arduous, with Nura undergoing multiple surgeries, including a successful sequesterectomy to remove the infected bone tissue. However, his recovery was short-lived, as he suffered a devastating setback when he broke his femur bone while trying to remove his shirt due to the sweltering heat. The hospital, plagued by power outages due to unpaid debts to the electricity provider, Kedco, was unable to provide adequate care, exacerbating Nura’s condition.

A Heartbreaking Reality

The cumulative effect of these medical expenses has been crippling, leaving Nura and his family financially drained. Despite his bravery and resilience, Nura’s health continues to deteriorate, and his family is struggling to make ends meet. It is heartbreaking to see this once-vibrant individual, who has always been there for others, now in desperate need of our help.

A Call to Action

We urge everyone to come together and support Nura in his time of need. Your donations, no matter how small, can make a significant difference in his recovery. We appeal to your sense of compassion, kindness, and generosity to help save Nura’s life.

Let us rally around Nura and his family, providing them with the support and care they need during this challenging time. Together, we can make a difference and help Nura overcome his health struggles.

Please donate generously to support Nura’s medical treatment. Your contribution can help save his life.

Account details:

Nura Zakari Gwarzo GTBank Account Number: 0020227626

Let us come together to show our support for Nura Zakaria Gwarzo. Every donation counts, and every prayer matters.

By Jameel Ahmed, PhD

It is both laughable and annoying how some few individuals think that His Excellency Alhaji Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, former Jigawa State Governor and current minister of Defence, is losing relevance in the politics of the state or that his influence and grip on the All Progressives Congress (APC) is waning. Having this insinuation is akin to thinking that a mountain can crumble by a mere hit of a worn-out hammer.

How would you, as a sane person, surmise that a figure as influential and powerful as Badaru can lose relevance in the politics of Jigawa State! As a two-term Jigawa Governor, Badaru not only redefined the politics of the state but also gave essence to governance, transforming it from a mundane routine to a purpose-driven and promising endeavour that truly served the people. Astute and empathetic that he was (and still is), he enlivened the spirit of the poor by taking social amenities to them, thereby placing the state on a promising trajectory of sustainable development.

In what appeared to be a digression from what most politicians considered as norm, Badaru, on assumption of office, vowed to complete the projects initiated by his predecessor. And in a manner that symbolised “walking the talk”, he completed all the projects and initiated others and saw them to the finishing line before the expiration of his tenure. When many would luxuriate on the laps of power and get intoxicated by its grandeur, my Boss remained focus, determined and committed to the welfare of the good people of Jigawa State.

As his loyalist and staunch supporter, one of the numerous lessons I have learnt from him is that of speaking less but doing much. When he promises, rest assured that he has it all planned and that he will fulfill the promise. But here, one wouldn’t deny the fallibility of humans, after all it is an inherent ‘trait’ created in man. But comparatively speaking, Badaru has, as a Governor, proven his worth, and still doing ditto as Nigeria’s Minister of Defence. We are all living witnesses to how he is straining his nerves in securing the country and giving hopes to Nigerians.

His government, all-inclusive that it was, also carried the youths along. It was during his days as the number of citizen of Jigawa that the state witnessed a sharp shift from the approach of having the elderly people taking the centre stage and dominating key positions in government. One wouldn’t err to say that Badaru was the first governor in Nigeria to have given special recognition to the youths. From graciously approving key appointments to the youths, he unprecedentedly paved way for them to contest and win chairmanship election across the local government areas of the state.

He believed that by bringing fresh energy into the system of governance, more innovative solutions, creative ideas and effective policies could be harnessed to drive meaningful change and positive development to the good people of the state. And he was right! The youngsters he drew closer to him and availed opportunities to them didn’t disappoint him. For example, the council chairmen that served during his time had all done wonderfully well as they executed key projects that are critical to the development of their respective local government areas.

But alas, their tenures were cut short with the coming of the present Governor who, ironically, was also a protégé of Badaru. After making him a Commissioner and a member of the state executive council, Badaru later chose Umar Namadi to be his running mate during the time he sought reelection. Badaru, unlike many other governors who wouldn’t allow their deputies to do well lest they become strong and powerful, gave all he could to Namadi, extending every favour to him.

Badaru didn’t stop at that, he went further to clear the grounds for Namadi to succeed him, a rare privilege only few can extend to their deputies. He anointed him, stood by his side and gave his all to ensure his (Namadi’s) success at the poll. Every observer and keen follower of political happenings in Jigawa, if they’re sincere, would tell you that the contest, even at the primaries, was a heated one as there were many aspirants eyeing the exalted governorship seat. But with Badaru’s help, Namadi was able to scale through, even when a section of the state’s population was having misgivings about his competence and capacity to deliver.

And that was how the current governor came to be in the position he occupies now. But in a bizarre turn of events, those close to him began to disparage his predecessor, falsely accusing him of not providing adequate support for the current governor. But this is a baseless accusation and a wanton lie; a delusional statement only an ingrate person with myopic mind could make. As a political gladiator and leader of the APC in the state, Badaru could have anointed another person if he had wished, but he chose to repose his trust on Namadi.

Therefore, to think that Baba Badaru’s influence is waning in the politics of Jigawa state is both absurd and naive. He has built a lasting legacy and a strong network of supporters who are still committed to his ideals and steadfast in their allegiance to him. For the records, the three former council Chairmen (namely, Musa Shu’aibu Guri, Abdulkadir Bala Umar T.O., and Uzairu Nadabo) who served during Badaru and recently appointed by governor Namadi were never staunch loyalists of the Defence Minister, neither are they die-hard APC members. They are only political renegades who defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC for selfish reasons.

Badaru’s support-base, his relevance and influence in the political space of Jigawa State are still intact. The appointment of the three former council Chairmen as Special Advisers to the current governor did not and will not affect Badaru’s influence. These are people who severed ties with Badaru immediately after he left office and never visited him even after his ministerial appointment. How then can one with a clear mind suggest that their appointment as Special Advisers by the current governor would erode the relevance and wane the influence of His Excellency Muhammad Badaru Abubakar?

Baba Badaru is still Jigawa’s political father and the state’s APC leader whose influence is as formidable as it is far-reaching. He brought APC to the state, nursed and nurtured it to a promising height that shaped the political landscape of the state and sheltered the good people of Jigawa. We are with him. Our allegiance is still intact. So is that of the remaining 21 former council Chairmen whose tenures were cut short at a time when they were executing impactful projects to their people, following the footsteps of our hero, a beacon of hope and an astute leader whose political sagacity is the envy of many. More wisdom to you, His Excellency Muhammad Badaru Abubakar!