Opinion
Why Does Nigeria’s Economy Slow Down in Q1?
By Saleh Adamu Kwaru, MIBF, MBA, CNA, FCCSA-USA
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, often experiences a noticeable slowdown in economic activities during the first quarter (Q1) of each year. This phenomenon, observed consistently over the past decade, raises important questions about the underlying causes and implications. The slowdown affects various sectors of the economy, from agriculture and manufacturing to services and retail, impacting growth rates and economic stability. Understanding the reasons behind this seasonal dip is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate its effects and ensure sustained economic progress throughout the year. Consequently, this exploration is aimed at only uncovering the key factors contributing to the Q1 economic slowdown in Nigeria.
Government Fiscal Year-End
The Nigerian government operates on a calendar fiscal year, meaning that the budget cycle ends in December. Ministries, departments, and agencies rush to utilize their allocated funds before the end of the year, often leading to a spike in government spending in Q4. Consequently, there’s a lull in spending in Q1 as new budgets are prepared and approved. This delay in government expenditure impacts overall economic activity.
Consumer Spending Patterns
The holiday season in Q4, including Christmas and New Year celebrations, leads to a surge in consumer spending on goods and services. This increased spending includes purchases of food, clothing, gifts, travel, and entertainment. After the holiday season, consumers tend to reduce their spending to recover financially, leading to a slowdown in economic activity in Q1.
Agricultural Cycle
Agriculture plays a significant role in Nigeria’s economy. The peak harvest season occurs in Q4, providing increased agricultural output and income for farmers. Following the harvest, the agricultural sector slows down as farmers focus on land preparation in last stage of Q1. This seasonal cycle results in reduced agricultural productivity and economic contribution during the first quarter.
Oil Sector Dynamics
Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on the oil sector. Fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels can impact the economy significantly. The oil industry may experience variations in output and revenue due to maintenance schedules, regulatory changes, or geopolitical factors. These variations can influence economic performance in Q1.
Business Planning and Activities
Many businesses undertake strategic planning, inventory management, and budget reviews at the beginning of the year. This period is often used for setting goals, assessing performance, and making adjustments. As a result, business activities may slow down temporarily while companies align their operations and strategies for the new year.
External Factors
Global economic conditions, trade relations, and geopolitical events can also affect Nigeria’s economy. External shocks, such as changes in commodity prices, exchange rates, or international trade policies, can influence economic performance. Additionally, any significant global events or crises may have spillover effects on Nigeria’s economy, impacting Q1 performance.
Sectoral Contributions
Key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and services may experience seasonal variations in output and demand. For example, construction activities may slow down during certain weather conditions, while the service sector may see reduced demand for tourism-related services post-holiday season.
Policy and Reform Implementation
Government policies and economic reforms often take time to implement and yield results. Initiatives aimed at diversifying the economy, improving. infrastructure, or enhancing business environments may face initial delays and challenges. The impact of these policies may not be immediately visible in Q1, contributing to slower economic growth.
Tackling these issues demands a holistic strategy, which involves diversifying the economy, encouraging sustainable agricultural methods, improving fiscal planning and management, and enacting policies that ensure steady economic activity throughout the year. Indeed, by understanding and mitigating the reasons for the Q1 economic slowdown, Nigeria can build a more resilient and dynamic economy that prospers throughout the year.
Saleh Adamu Kwaru,
Is a retired staff of Central Bank of Nigeria.
Opinion
Kperogi: A captive of raw emotions
Professor Aliyu Barau
In adding my voice to the latest Kperogi’s punch on the Emir of Kano MSII; I opt to go the way of science. Scientists deploy tools such as ‘research questions’ to find answers for what is unknown and use ‘research hypothesis’ on things which little is known about both in theory and practice. Examples of research questions could be: ‘can influential individuals help the government’s economic policies?’; or ‘can an Emir speak openly in a democratic setting? Examples of research hypotheses could be: ‘Kperogi is a confused academic and journalist’; or ‘Kperogi is not a sadist academic.’ After conducting a study scientists find answers to the research questions through multiple opinions, perspectives, and contexts that deepen our understanding. For research hypotheses, we accept or reject whether Kperogi is indeed a sadist or not, a confused academic/journalist or not. If you profess professorship, you must divorce sentiments. Kperogi’s overloaded bag of insults are unguided by science or decent knowledge. For him, English is a language and a rough and raw tool to misinform the uninformed living in the neo-Babel Tower.
According to myths, arrogance and ignorance made humans build the Tower of Babel to outsmart God. Then, God avenged by sowing confusion and strife among them by making them speak different languages. When humans cannot understand each other bitterness flourishes. Thus, language underpins conflicts and is a strong weapon of disseminating misinformation and disinformation. On the other hand, the Ivory Tower is the rendezvous of knowledge, though an idiom – to ‘live in the Ivory Tower’ denotes being inexperienced or disconnected from the world realities. Nigeria is a Babel Tower in its own right and its Ivory Tower is both amazing and disgusting. Kperogi belongs to both towers – one for a curse and the other for a cause.
I am prompted to pick holes in the ways Kperogi takes a swipe on Mallam Muhammadu Sanusi II, the Emir of Kano. Of course, I am not raising a firewall to fortify the Emir. It is apparent that Sanusi has been in the crosshairs of Kperogi – who lays siege looking for any possible angle to strike. I am particularly distressed by the hideous and superficial scholarship that Professor Kperogi personifies. In 2022, I felt it was compelling to respond to Kperogi’s nonsense when he shamelessly threatened to renounce his Nigerian citizenship should Tinubu emerge as Nigeria’s President. I don’t think Kperogi is the right person to write about the rift between Tinubu and Sanusi because both of them are clowns in the sight of his pen. I know it is not a repentance, and I hope it is not a means to curry favour with Tinubu’s camp. Writing on Sanusi’s Lagos outburst, I expect Kperogi to be deeply critical and analytical.
Academics and outstanding journalists have emotions, but their professionalism guides them to be careful, disinterested, and cautious. I remember the clash of the African giants – Ali Mazrui and Wole Soyinka in the 1990s. It was a merciless and smoldering battle of pens from whose storm settles dazzling knowledge and mastery of language. The duo fired salvos at each other with supreme argumentation exuding sounds and aromas of philosophy, faith, science, logic and above all critical thinking. Kperogi’s attacks on Sanusi are essentially based on ‘out of context statements’ and very unscholarly. Expectedly, the Tinubu’s government responded through boilerplate statements typical of the Nigeria Government media portfolio. For Kperogi, everything is about Sanusi’s hubris and unguarded orals. To me, there is more to this, the examples of questions and hypothesis that I have raised drive how I respond to Kperogi’s unscholarly take on the ‘text’ instead of the ‘context’.
African leaders like their counterparts everywhere can be understood better by looking at their complete lifecycle. This can be achieved through readings to dissect their histories, thinking, feelings, physique and emotions. PBS’ Frontline documentaries cover leaders such as MbS, Putin and Xi Jinping by tracing their lifecycle and stages. Each film on these personalities traces their childhood moments to background how and why they behave the way they do. Critics of Sanusi should at least use Johari Window theory (from Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham) to understand him in light of the theory’s four windows. Although this theory is meant for individuals to understand themselves heuristically, we can apply it in understanding why people behave the way they do.
There are many Nigerians – living under democratic atmosphere- who wish to see Sanusi and the like silenced or be as silent as a statue. Such people think traditional rulers are meant to be permanently reticent. Such notion or belief is actually backgrounded in colonial mentality and is aimed at gagging the colonized. The British royals are known for observing what is called ‘stiff upper lip’. I am not disputing royal etiquettes which also weakens progressively with time. However, in recent times, we have seen how Prince Harry, born by the stiff upper lip, butchered it in the most horrendous way. Even the heir-apparent, Prince William is widely reported calling the royal stiff upper lip dangerous to their mental health. Kperogi should learn to let Sanusi speak his mind. On the other hand, it is insulting that traditional rulers are caged as ‘agents’ of every governor or government – the good, the bad, the ugly.
On the matter of his friends, unknown to Kperogi, methinks Sanusi plays very smart and proud in his talks. As an economist, he knows the value of the ‘Stop Rule.’ It is called the hard-and-fast simple rule of avoiding frustration. Gerald M. Loeb (1899-1974) in his classic, The Battle for Investment Survival cautioned that investors must apply a Stop Rule once the values start declining. Maybe, Sanusi applies the Stop Rule to his friends whose behaviors apparently honk at him signaling devaluation of the friendship. Many scientists postulate that only 20% and to the maximum of 50% of our friends are real, others are just numbers.
Relatedly, many people felt Sanusi is a narcissist for saying he withheld his advice to the government. I see it differently, individuals with knowledge and proven track records can help governments to turn around the economy. The controversial US ‘Prime Minister’ Elon Musk as Jeffery Sachs calls him is an example. Today, no one in Nigeria would deny that petroleum pricing including subsidy removal is the most frustrating economic issue for both Government and the citizens. Again, nobody can deny that Ali Dangote is the most important private sector player in the petroleum sector. In Nigeria, nobody can deny that the Government has frustrated Ali Dangote to the highest skies. Nobody can deny that Dangote is inflammably incensed. Dangote’s historic shame-breaker investment in the sector should earn him the best spectacular rewards and not the hell he sees. In the US, Beta, Apple, Amazon, Google, Walmart and many others are seen as the face of America and these giants enjoy apparent and cryptic support from every Government in the US. In China Tiktok, BYD and Alibaba and the rest are seen by the Government as the scions of the Government. Dangote is being orphaned and humiliated. This dehumanizing treatment Dangote is receiving is costly for Nigeria. It will take years and prime efforts to fix it. I learned that some investors from North Africa recoiled on the grounds that if Dangote is mishandled in his fatherland, what would be for them. Now, nobody in Nigeria can deny that Emir Sanusi and Dangote are trusted friends. I assume Sanusi could ‘help’ the government to reconcile with Dangote. The Government needs to be assisted to restore the confidence of local and foreign investors. Dangote testimony is about the only one that investors would believe and not any choreographed statements of the Government.
This is how I choose to deconstruct Kperogi by adding my opinion and perspectives to answer the question I raised in the beginning. It is left to the reader to either accept or reject my hypothesis on who actually Keprogi is. One thing I am sure of is that Kperogi’s pen swims in raw emotions. I repeat that betrays his academic ranking and position which I queried for being not-flying in my earlier treatise on his petty products.
Opinion
Abba Gida Gida’s revolutionary approach to health sector reform: A new dawn for Kano’s healthcare
Hassan Sani Tukur
In a landscape marred by neglect and decay, the administration of His Excellency Governor Abba K Yusuf, affectionately known as Abba Gida Gida, has emerged as a beacon of hope for the health sector in Kano State. Since assuming office on May 29, 2023, Governor Yusuf has embarked on an ambitious journey to restore and revolutionize a healthcare system that had been left in a state of disrepair by previous administration. The challenges were formidable: dilapidated infrastructures, a stark absence of essential medical supplies, abysmal staff welfare, and the shocking proposal to sell off the historic Hasiya Bayero Pediatric Hospital, a vital institution for the care of infants and their mothers.
In less than two years, Governor Yusuf has orchestrated a remarkable turnaround, laying the groundwork for a healthcare system that is not only functional but is also poised to serve the needs of its citizens effectively. His administration’s commitment to revitalizing the health sector is evident in the quick actions taken within his first 100 days in office. The decision to rescind the sale of Hasiya Bayero Hospital, followed by a comprehensive renovation and re-equipping of the facility, stands as a proof to his dedication to the welfare of the people. This hospital, now reopened, continues to provide free healthcare services to hundreds of families daily.
The revitalization of Nuhu Bamalli Hospital, which has also been reopened with renewed vigor, is another significant achievement that reflects Governor Yusuf’s focus on restoring trust in public healthcare. Through the innovative Abba Care Initiative, the administration is addressing maternal health needs by providing monthly supplies essential for safe deliveries and offering free Cesarean Section kits to public hospitals across the state. This initiative not only alleviates the financial burden on expectant mothers but also enhances the quality of maternal healthcare in Kano.
Moreover, the ongoing renovation of the historic Muhammadu Abdullahi Wase (Asibitin Nasarrawa) hospital is a clear indication that the Governor is committed to addressing the long-standing issues that have plagued the health sector for years. The administration’s foresight in planning a general overhaul of rural hospitals, coupled with the provision of mobile ambulances across all 44 local government areas, demonstrates a holistic approach to healthcare delivery that prioritizes accessibility and responsiveness.
In a landmark move that speaks volumes about his commitment to the future of healthcare in Kano, Governor Yusuf traveled to Lefkosia, Cyprus, in December 2024, where he engaged in fruitful discussions with university authorities regarding the plight of Kano medical and nursing students. By negotiating the payment of N1.9 billion to secure the release of academic certificates that had been withheld due to prior administrative neglect, he has not only empowered these young professionals but has also paved the way for a new generation of healthcare practitioners ready to serve their communities.
The ambitious plans for the general renovation of nine general hospitals across the state, alongside the upgrading of eight primary health care facilities to general hospitals, signify a transformative vision for healthcare in Kano. There is also the proposed establishment of a Comprehensive Primary Health Care facility in Unguwa Uku and the revitalization of eleven additional primary health care facilities.
Equally important is the recognition of healthcare personnel, who are the backbone of any effective health system. In fulfilling his promise to improve staff welfare, Governor Yusuf has implemented the CONMESS salary structure for medical personnel, a move that has been met with widespread appreciation. By valuing the contributions of healthcare workers, the administration is fostering an environment where professionals are motivated to deliver quality care.
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf continues to navigate the complexities of healthcare reform in Kano .The strides made in revitalizing the health sector reflect a profound commitment to the well-being of the people, offering a glimpse of a future where accessible, efficient, and compassionate healthcare is not just an aspiration but a reality for all citizens of Kano State. In this new dawn of healthcare, the legacy of Governor Yusuf is one of hope, resilience, and dedication to the health of his people.
Hassan Sani Tukur,
Is SSA New Media to Gov. Abba K. Yusuf.
Sat 18th January, 2025.
Opinion
Friday Sermon: America/California/Los Angeles Wildfires; A Great Message To The World!
By Imam Murtadha Gusau
In the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful
Praise belongs to Allah alone; peace and blessing on the last Prophet, his family and his Companions.
Dear brothers and sisters! Allah the Most High says:
“And we send not the signs except to warn, and to make people afraid (of destruction).” [Qur’an, 17: 59]
Respected servants of Allah! The 2025 American/California/Los Angeles wildfires have been unprecedented in their scale and devastation, marking one of the most catastrophic natural disasters in U.S. history.
These fires have ravaged over 40,000 to 80,000 acres, resulting in at least 25 fatalities and the destruction of thousands of structures.
Lives have been lost and disrupted, and thousands of homes and businesses have been destroyed as wind-whipped wildfires continue to burn around Los Angeles a week after they began. Mental health professionals expect emotional and psychological wounds will endure long after the blazes have been extinguished.
Fires continue to burn as millions of people remain under an extreme fire weather alert. The Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire have already flattened entire neighbourhoods in Los Angeles, leaving nothing but outlines and ash where homes once stood. It is expected that this will all amount to the worst natural disaster in American history in terms of cost and scale.
These fires raise major questions about the future of Los Angeles, who is to blame, insurance and just how prepared they are for worsening fires and other climate change-fuelled disasters.
The fires are a national disaster of epic proportions. City officials, California Governor Gavin Newsom and President-elect Donald Trump have traded accusations about what caused this crisis.
Dear servants of Allah! We have witnessed firsthand the devastating impact of natural disasters. The massive wildfires that have ravaged America serve as a stark reminder of the power of Allah and the fragility of human life. These events have sparked conversations about whether natural disasters are divine punishment or if they hold a deeper, more personal significance for humanity.
In Islamic thought, the notion of natural disasters as divine punishment is a recurring theme, particularly in stories of earlier nations in the noble Qur’an. However, with the advent of Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him), many scholars believe that collective punishment in its classical sense no longer applies. Instead, natural calamities are understood through the lenses of divine mercy, tests, and individual accountability.
One perspective stems from the Qur’anic principle that divine punishment is preceded by Prophetic warnings. Allah the Most High says:
“We would not punish until We had sent a messenger.” [Qur’an, 17:15]
Islamic scholars suggest that with the completion of the Prophet Muhammad’s mission, humanity has been given a universal and enduring guide to righteousness in the noble Qur’an. This shifts the focus from collective punishment to individual and communal responsibility for navigating moral and ethical challenges.
The Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) is described in the noble Qur’an as a Rahmatan Lil-alameen (mercy to the worlds), emphasizing divine mercy. His saying: “Allah’s mercy outstrips His wrath.” [Muslim], reinforces this understanding. Many scholars argue that calamities now reflect divine wisdom as tests or reminders rather than direct retribution.
The Qur’an further supports this view, stating:
“Whatever misfortune befalls you, it is because of what your hands have earned. And He pardons much.” [Qur’an, 42:30]
Natural disasters can be seen as consequences of human actions, such as environmental neglect, rather than explicit divine punishment. The principle of individual accountability, “No bearer of burdens will bear the burden of another.” [Qur’an, 6:164], highlights the shift from collective to personal responsibility.
Nevertheless, some scholars maintain that disasters serve as warnings about societal immorality. The Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) said:
“When obscenity and immorality spread among a people… plagues and diseases that were never known among their predecessors will spread among them.” [Ibn Majah]
These interpretations view disasters as opportunities for repentance and spiritual growth.
Understanding natural disasters requires balancing theological insights with compassion and action. Whether seen as tests, reminders, or consequences, such events call for reflection, moral accountability, and a collective commitment to justice and mercy. In doing so, we can align ourselves with the divine mercy that is central to Prophet Muhammad’s (Peace be upon him) mission and respond to challenges with resilience and faith.
Allah has sent some kind of wildfire or forest fire in Los Angeles of American that they have never seen before and without such sense the fire is increasing as if it being inserted, it has consumed houses only Allah knows how many houses of dollars have gone, everything has stopped in the city many people have fled refugee camps.
See how the city of Los Angeles, which is one of the largest cities in the world, woke up to a drought in less than two days.
Surely power is only belongs to Lillahi Wahidul Qahhar.
The fires in Los Angeles are still burning as I write this. The loss of property, the disruption and loss of lives, and the trauma these fires created are horrendous.
Ya Allah protect your righteous servants whenever they are in the world.
May Allah save those righteous servants affected from the wildfire calamity and make us learn lessons and correct our ways, ameen.
Lastly, I pray, may the Almighty Allah remove all our tears, all our worries, all our sorrows and all our pains and replace them with complete happiness, complete smiles and complete good health, ameen Ya Mujib!
All perfect praise is due to Allah, Lord of the worlds. May the peace, blessings and salutations of Allah be upon our noble Messenger, Muhammad (Peace be upon him), and upon his family, his Companions and his true followers.
Murtadha Muhammad Gusau is the Chief Imam of: Nagazi-Uvete Jumu’ah Mosque; and Late Alhaji Abdur-Rahman Okene Mosque, Okene, Kogi State, Nigeria. He can be reached via: gusauimam@gmail.com; or +2348038289761.
This Friday sermon (Jumu’ah Khutbah) was prepared for delivery today Friday, 17 Rajab, 1446 AH (January 17, 2024).