Opinion
Leadership question and the issue of Nigeria’s national unity
Tanko Yakasai OFR
In December 2016, a lecture was organised in Kano to celebrate my 90th birthday. By then, it was a practice to celebrate the annual events of my birthday with public lectures. But since 2016, due to the cumbersome nature of organising such events, the annual celebration was suspended.
Instructively, however, at the celebration of my 90th birthday, my namesake Salihu, whom I mentioned in my autobiography, pointed out a mistake regarding the year we were born. Salihu is older than me by 40 days. He said we were born during the reign of Emir of Kano, Usman Dan Majekarofi in 1925 and not during the reign of Emir Abdullahi Bayero. He revealed that not only his parents told him so but also his school record in Shahuchi elementary school, confirmed that. This revelation encouraged me to investigate further in order to find out how the mistake regarding my date of birth came about.
To this end, the year of my first marriage served as the starting point. As I recorded in my autobiography, I first got married in 1945 which was the year the Second World War ended. I know for a fact that I had my first marriage at the age of 20. Furthermore, I also know that l married on the same day with Sabo Dan Galadiman Tanagar. He was blessed with a child in early 1946 and his personal records corroborated my account regarding the day of our marriage. These facts confirmed to me that the year of my birth was 1925 and not 1926. With this confirmation, my birthday records have been corrected accordingly.
I am very thankful to Almighty Allah for giving me a rare opportunity to once again witness another circle of celebrating my birthday anniversary. Previously, guest speakers were invited to speak at the anniversary. This year, it is very difficult to organize such gatherings mainly due to the global pandemic of Covid-19, and the laid down protocols of social distancing. Therefore, I decided to use this year’s occasion to address burning national issues. Accordingly, I picked what I consider important national issues that kept eluding the country for decades. These issues have over the years generated endless and often misleading debates; two of which are constitutional amendments and national population census.
Yoruba’s claim of inadequacy of 1999 constitution is inaccurate
It may be recalled that on the 11th of September, 2020, the Yoruba Summit Group held a meeting in Lagos and undertook an in-depth review of the State of Nigeria in relation to the interests and aspirations of the Yoruba Nation. At the end of that meeting, they issued a communique in which they stated their positions on some national issues, such as Constitutional Amendment, Census, and the National Waterways Bill (the latter being currently debated at the National Assembly), among others. It is in the light of this that I wish to use this occasion to highlight several key facts which could shed some light on the issues raised in the communique, starting with the constitutional review, which is also currently ongoing at the National Assembly.
The Yoruba Summit Group called for the jettisoning of the 1999 Constitution which they called “fatally flawed” on the excuse that the Constitution was a product of a military decree with imbalances that can stunt the aspirations of many ethnic groups, especially the Southwest zone.
To address this issue, let’s delve briefly into our recent history, especially how the General Abdulsalam Abubakar’s regime came up with the 1999 constitution. We can recall that on coming to power, he set up a Constitutional Review Committee headed by late Honorable Justice Niki Tobi of the Supreme Court, who hailed from the South-South. The Committee, after touring the country stated in its report that based on the memorandums received, the majority of people in Nigeria were not in support of a full scale constitutional conference.The Committee, therefore, decided to limit its recommendation to matters relating to updating the 1979 Constitution in the following key areas:
a. Additional number of states which were 19 in 1979 to 36 in 1999;
b. The Federal Character, including the creation of Federal Character Commission; and
c. Matters related to increase in population, among other issues
However, after concluding its work, nothing major was amended, removed or added to the 1979 Constitution by the committee. After the promulgation of the amended constitution, Thisday Newspaper commissioned its 3 senior editorial staff to undertake a comparison between the two constitutions. At the end of the exercise, Simon Kolawale who was among the 3 editors, published a report which he tagged “This Thing Called 1999 Constitution.” He observed that his team conducted a page by page analysis of the two constitutions and concluded that, except for the items updated above, the 1979 and 1999 Constitutions are the same, almost line by line.
The main take home is that the current 1999 Constitution was an updated version of the 1979 constitution, which was drafted with the full participation of elected and nominated individuals representing different segments of the country. It also benefitted from the endorsement of our known national leaders of the major ethnic groups, regions and political opinions of the country, including:
a. Dr Nnamdi Azikwe of the NCNC in the First Republic and NPP leader in 1979;
b. Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Action Group (AG) in the First Republic and UPN during Second Republic;
c. Malam Aminu Kano of the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) during the First Republic and PRP in 1979;
d. Comrade Waziri Ibrahim of NPC and Great Nigerian People Party (GNPP) in 1979.
e. Chief Joseph Tarka of UMBC of First Republic and NPN in 1979.
f. Chief Harold Dappa Bitiye and Chief Milford Okilo of Nigeria Delta Congress (NDC) of First Republic and NPN in 1979.
It is also interesting to note that these leaders who represented different geopolitical zones of the country endorsed the Constitution and virtually all of them contested elections under the 1979 Constitutions which was a product of military decree. Among our founding political fathers only Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa and Sir Ahmadu Bello the Sardauna of Sokoto who were not alive in 1979. Therefore, it is inaccurate for the Yoruba Summit Group to claim that the 1999 Constitution is “fatally flawed” on the ground that the Constitution was the product of military decree.
The second important issue of concern is the national population census. The Yoruba Summit Group and other people mainly from Southern Nigeria have disputed Nigeria’s national census figures. They obtrusively argued that the North was unduly favoured by the British in the conduct of national population census. On this too, let’s go down the memory lane, beginning with the first population census that was conducted in 1911, which predated the 1914 amalgamation. The first census conducted in Nigeria was in 1911. In that exercise, the British could not carry out the exercise across the two protectorates simultaneously due to lack of funds and logistical challenges. Therefore, they used the number of tax payers to determine the populations of the protectorates. The same method was applied in the 1921, and 1931 census exercises. In 1941 the census was not conducted due to the Second World War until 1952 and 1953. All these censuses conducted before the Independence, on the average, showed the North had 54% and the South had 46% of the total population.
For example, the total estimated population in 1911 was 18.72 million where the northern and Southern Provinces having 10 million and 8.16 million respectively. Futhermore, the 1921 census indicated a total of 10.26m for the North, which is 55.10%, while 8.37m for the South which represent 44.90% with a total figure of 18.63m. Similarly, in 1931 the total figure was 19.9 million; the North had 11.43 million and the South had 8.4 Million. In 1952 and 1953 when the first actual enumeration across the country was conducted, the total population was 31.1million. The North had 16.8million (54%) and the South 14.3million (46%) of the total population. It is important to note that the pre-independence censuses during the colonial era were initially for reasons of tax collection. The issues of revenue allocation and representation based on population was only introduced after independence. As such, the North had no basis or influence to tilt the percentage of their population in its favour. The colonial powers did not equally have any basis to favour the North in the census because in 1911 there was no entity called Nigeria.
After Independence, censuses were carried out in 1963, 1973, 1991 and then 2006. It is worth noting that the 1963 was eventually cancelled because of the dispute between the Eastern region and the Western regions, largely due to claim of irregularities made by the government of the eastern region in the discovery of some villages in the east which were not counted. This was objected to by the government of the western region. Eventually, the matter was resolved and another headcount was conducted in 1963 which was generally accepted and adopted.
Table 1: Summary of Population Census in Nigeria: 1911-2006
YEAR NORTH SOUTH
1911 55.00% 45.00%
1921 55.10% 44.90%
1931. 57.40 % 42.60%
1952 54.55% 45.45%
1962 56.77% 43.23%
1963 53.51% 46.49%
1973 64.99% 35.01%
1991 51.85% 48.15%
2006 53.59% 46.41%
Source: National Population Commission
Worthy of emphasis here is that during the pre-independence period, women in the North were not counted in the census exercises. This was because the headcount, at that time, was based on taxation, and northern women were not eligible tax payers, unlike their counterpart in the South who paid taxes and were therefore enumerated accordingly. Women taxation from the South led to the Onitsha women riot during 1953 census who felt that their numbers were unjustly increased as an excuse to pay more tax. It is therefore logical that the population of North, which consistently remain over 50% of the population prior to independence, would naturally increase when women were included in the post-independence censuses.
From the 1951 general election up to 1959, representation in government was introduced. The appointment of ministers were based on regional representation. At that period, the entire North had only 4 ministers, whereas the South had a total of 9; 4 from the west, 4 from the east and 1 from Southern Cameroons. It could therefore be argued that due to the non-inclusion of women in the census, the North was shortchanged on the appointment of ministers at the national level throughout the period of colonial administration.
Based on the above reality, it is clear that any claim by any group or individual that the North was being unduly favoured by the British on the issue of population is not supported by facts or history.
The third issue raised by the Yoruba Summit Group and others is the claim that Lagos and Kano have almost the same population but Lagos has 20 local governments while Kano has 44. Therefore they insisted that Kano was unduly favoured in the creation of local governments. In this regard, it is important to appreciate that local government creation was not based on population alone but it is also based on landmass as well. This is the reason why Kano with a landmass of 20,131 square kilometers has more local governments than Lagos which has just 3,345 square kilometers.
Arising from the above issues which continued to generate heated debates and ill-feeling, I’m very much concerned as an elder. What I found very disturbing is that such utterances are directed against the unity of our country. Such narratives resembled that of some political leaders way back in 1953 when a member of the defunct Action Group Party introduced a motion in the House of Representatives, asking Britain to grant independence to Nigeria by 1956. Another Northern member of the House proposed an amendment to the motion by changing 1956 to as soon as practicable. This was because as at 1953, the entire Northern Region, which had 75% of Nigeria’s landmass and about 55% of the country’s population, had only one graduate, Dr R.A.B Dikko. At the same time, the South had thousands of graduates from different fields of expertise including law, engineering, medicine, administration, social sciences, etc. with about 90% of the public services manpower in the North were made up of expatriates or Nigerians from the southern part of the country. Action Group leaders rejected the compromise proposed by the northern legislator in order to enable the north prepare itself for independence. This is because if Nigeria was granted independence by 1956, the North would be under the control of the civil servants from the South, a situation that will put the North under perpetual domination of the South, particularly people from the Western Region, which had the preponderance of the public servants at the time. Such a scenario would have been a perpetual source of tension which would not auger well for the future stability of the nation. That seems to be the origin of the hostility of some Action Group supporters against the North till date. It is my humble submission that the remnant of such predispositions should discouraged.
Recently, I read an online post of the number of billionaires in Nigeria with about 80% of them from the southern part of the country. Similarly, it is on record that the level of poverty index and unemployment are negligible in the South compared to the North which has over 65% of the Nigerian poor people. This has clearly demonstrated that our compatriots from the South benefited more from the Nigerian State than the north. Yet, the north never complains against this disparity even though many of the national endowments are located in the north.
Perhaps, the reason why northerners do not bother about the skewness in the national prosperity is their awareness that human resources and land are key important factors that make a nation great. So, with better education, social re-orientation, effective leadership and good governance, it is only a matter of time before they will catch up with their compatriots from the South. I recall that sixty years ago, when I visited the People’s Republic of China, the country was almost at the same level of development as Nigeria today. However, today China is next to the United States of America in terms of economic development and other areas of human endeavours.
Therefore, there is no gainsaying that Nigeria is endowed with human and material resources that can effectively be harnessed to bring faster growth and development for the benefit of all. Limited opportunity for growth and shrinking opportunities naturally fuel tension and decent. What we need are committed, competence and effective leaders to take the country to the Promised Land. To this end, only a strong political party equipped with vision, agenda for national development and effective process can provide the required leadership. It is therefore necessary to have credible and focused political parties that will be guided by their manifestos and will be willing to implement people’s oriented developmental programmes.
The Action Group was one of the parties that could have provided such a platform if it were able to convince Nigerians that it was for the welfare of every segment of the country. Unfortunately, the leaders of both Action Group and its successor, UPN mainly committed themselves to the interest of the Yoruba people, to the exclusion of the rest of the country. Prominent Northerners who joined the Action Group and UPN were given senior positions in the leadership of those parties but were shabbily treated and eventually they silently abandoned the parties. Such prominent northerners with such experiences include, Abba Maikwaru, Malam Ibrahim Imam, Hon. Muhammadu Basharu, Malam Jamo Funtua, J. S. Tarka, Chia Surma, Patrick Dokotri, Sen. Ibrahim Dimis, Jonah Assadugu, Malam Yabagi Bidda, Alh Maito of Ilorin, Sen Abaagu from Benue, Malam Maiyaqi from Southern Zaria, Malam Haruna Wakilin Doka from Sokoto, Mr Philip Maken from Ganye, Peter Gawon, senior brother of our former head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon and Malama Ladi ‘Yartakarda.
It is gladdening to note that today the remnant of Action Group and UPN leadership from Yoruba land are now part of our endangered species. There were many south westerners with total commitment to unity and progress of Nigeria in other political grouping such as the NCNC, NPN, and alike. Today, such southerners with national orientation are gradually evolving and must be encouraged.
While thanking Almighty God for his gift of life to us, it is incumbent on leaders and opinion holders to avoid engaging in divisive tendencies and explore avenues to ensure a peaceful, united and prosperous country. The North can and should encourage movement towards creating a better united Nigeria by reaching out to other regions and also demonstrating good governance and better capacity for managing the multiplicity and often conflicting national and regional interests. Indeed, the North must continue to search for people with the right vision, capacity and predisposition to represent the region in the national space while making concerted efforts to reduce the self-inflicted poverty and unemployment currently ravaging the region. By so doing, the South would clearly appreciate the strategic contribution of the North to national growth, stability and prosperity.
Thank you and God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Tanko Yakasai OFR, is Nigeria’s elder statesman based in Kano.
Ruqayyah Hamidu Muhammad PhD
Begging (also known as panhandling) is the practice of imploring others to grant a favor, often a gift of money, with little or no expectation of reciprocation. A person doing such is called a beggar or panhandler. Beggars may operate in public places such as transport routes, urban parks, and markets. Some beggars adopt a persistent approach, approaching motorists in traffic, and creating nuisance along major highways. How ever begging, no doubt, is a downgraded act which leads to the image tarnishing as well as loss of prestige and dignity of any person engaging in it.
Islam prohibits begging as a profession, and considers it to be lazy work that goes against the strength that Allah gives. The Prophet Muhammad advised people to try to earn a living through lawful and good means, encouraging self-reliance and hard work. The only condition for one to beg is when he is extremely poor and in dire need, then such an individual can approach others for assistance and once his need is met, he goes back to his normal business. Islam frowns at taking begging as a means of livelihood.
Although contributing factor to this issue is the economic downturn, resulting in the closure of industries and factories, fuel subsidy removal, different acts of terrorism, leaving many without alternative means of livelihood. While discouraging begging, Islam also stresses the responsibility of those with resources to provide charity (zakat and sadaqah) to alleviate poverty and prevent people from resorting to begging.
The issue of begging, especially in places like Kano, where cultural and religious values encourage generosity, reflects a troubling misuse of kindness and a lack of systemic solutions to poverty. While the Islamic principles of charity (zakat and sadaqah) aim to create a safety net for the needy, the exploitation of this benevolence has led to social and urban challenges.
I want to commend and encourage the Kano State Government for its efforts to address the issue of begging, as it reflects a thoughtful recognition of the need to tackle this societal challenge. Taking decisive action against the menace of begging is crucial, not only to restore the dignity of individuals (who risk losing their sense of self-worth) but also to enhance the social and urban fabric of Kano.
The issue of paramilitary organizations like KAROTA (Kano Road and Traffic Agency), Federal Road safety Corps (FRSC) officials, and other related entities soliciting bribes or “begging” from motorists on Kano streets is indeed troubling. This practice undermines public trust in these institutions, compromises their integrity, and creates an atmosphere of lawlessness and embarrassment for both the authorities and the public.
To rebuild trust and professionalism, the government must make accountability and ethical behavior non-negotiable priorities. Ensuring that institutions like KAROTA and road safety agencies operate with transparency and respect for the public will not only enhance their effectiveness but also restore the dignity of both the enforcers and the citizens they serve.
The issues of begging and the misuse of public trust in Kano are deeply intertwined with broader societal and institutional challenges. While poverty and economic downturns have pushed many into desperation, the exploitation of kindness and corruption among enforcement agencies exacerbate these problems. Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach that combines compassion, accountability, and systemic reforms.
The Kano State Government’s efforts to tackle begging are commendable, and they should be bolstered with robust policies that empower individuals to seek dignified livelihoods. Similarly, eradicating unethical practices within paramilitary and traffic enforcement agencies must be a top priority to restore public trust and professionalism.
By fostering an environment of dignity, transparency, and responsibility, Kano can pave the way for a more equitable and harmonious society where charity serves its true purpose, laws are upheld with integrity, and every individual is encouraged to contribute positively to the community. Let this be a collective commitment to reclaim the soul and pride of Kano for the benefit of all.
Ruqayyah Hamidu Muhammad PhD, is the Executive Director Network for Awareness for Socio-economic Rights and Sustainable Development (NASSDEV).
By Imam Murtadha Gusau
In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
All perfect praise be to Allah the Lord of the Worlds. May His peace and blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad and upon all his family and companions.
Dear brothers and sisters! One of the most effective ways Islam employs to combat crime, prevent it, and reduce its prevalence is through purposeful education. This education is considered one of the most important means to resist evil and corruption, and it has a profound impact.
Islamic education is distinct from other forms of education in the sense that its primary and ultimate goal is to create virtuous individuals. While other educational systems aim to prepare citizens who may differ in their qualities and philosophies, Islam seeks to educate individuals regardless of their gender, race, language, or nationality.
As far as Islamic education is concerned, the human being is the focal point in all aspects: intellect, soul, body, and instincts. Islam provides a comprehensive framework and methodology to guide individuals toward achieving this goal.
Moreover, Islamic education seeks to guide individuals towards becoming the most righteous and Allah-conscious people. It emphasises that one’s worthiness or nobility in the sight of Allah is determined by their level of piety and consciousness of Him. As mentioned in Surah Al-Hujurat, Verse: 13:
“O mankind, indeed We have created you from male and female and made you peoples and tribes that you may know one another. Indeed, the most noble of you in the sight of Allah is the most righteous of you. Indeed, Allah is Knowing and Acquainted.”
Islamic education encourages people to be devout worshippers, recognising that the primary purpose of their creation is to worship Allah alone, as mentioned in Surah Az-Zariyat, Verse: 56:
“And I did not create the jinn and mankind except to worship Me.”
Furthermore, it calls for individuals to seek the pleasure and guidance of Allah in both their private and public lives, following His guidance wholeheartedly. As mentioned in Surah Al-Baqarah, Verse: 38:
“So if there comes to you guidance from Me, then whoever follows My guidance will neither go astray [in the world] nor suffer [in the Hereafter].”
Islamic education is not only characterised by its focus on humanity but also by its deeply rooted religious aspect. It connects individuals with their Creator, instilling in them hope and fear of Allah. It addresses human nature, awakening the innate factors of goodness within them. As mentioned in the book “Islamic Studies,” the connection of the human conscience to Allah is the primary line in profound ethical education. This necessitates that religious beliefs serve as a fundamental basis for individual or social education, aiming not only to achieve social or national interests but also to attain a higher, fundamentally human goal characterised by the desire to please Allah alone and sacrifice for His noble countenance.
Islamic education aims to shape the Muslim individual and Muslim society, guiding lost humanity towards divine faith and the Islamic perspective on humans, the universe, and life. This concept is beautifully summarised in the book, Islamic Education between Tradition and Modernity, page 98.
What confirms the role of Islamic education is that it is a practical type of education that calls for goodness, emphasises it, prohibits evil, and warns against it. This is reflected in the verses where Allah seeks faith accompanied by righteous deeds, e.g:
“Those who believe and do righteous deeds – those are the companions of Paradise; they will abide therein eternally.” [Surah Al-Baqarah, 82]
Islamic education is not theoretical and far-fetched from practical application; rather, it is within the capabilities and limits of human potential. In this regard, the exemplary model for humanity is the Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him), whom Allah has made a role model for all people through his words, actions, and character, e.g:
“There has certainly been for you in the Messenger of Allah an excellent pattern for anyone whose hope is in Allah and the Last Day and [who] remembers Allah often.” [Surah Al-Ahzab, 21]
Therefore, he is the embodiment of all the principles, values, and teachings of Islam, making Islamic education a blend of theory and practical application, with a strong focus on the latter.
One of the characteristics of this education is that it is continuous and comprehensive, involving everyone. Hence, we find a strong emphasis in the Prophetic Hadith on the role of the family in education. The Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) said:
“Everyone is born a Muslim, but his parents make him a Jew, a Christian, or a Magian.” [Bukhari and Muslim]
This highlights the pivotal role of parents in the upbringing of their children for Islam places this responsibility on their shoulders. The Prophet (Peace be upon him) said:
“Each of you is a shepherd and each of you is responsible for his flock. The Imam who is over the people is a shepherd and is responsible for his flock; a man is a shepherd in charge of the inhabitants of his household and he is responsible for his flock; a woman is a shepherdess in charge of her husband’s house and children and she is responsible for them; and a man’s servant is a shepherd in charge of his master’s property and he is responsible for it. So each of you is a shepherd and each of you is responsible for his flock.” [Bukhari]
He also emphasised the importance of good manners in upbringing, saying:
“There is no gift that a father gives his son more virtuous than good manners.” [Tirmidhi]
Indeed, the role of schools is crucial in shaping the minds and characters of young students due to their natural inclination to imitate. This is why the early generations of Muslims were very particular about selecting righteous educators for their children. As mentioned by Sheikh Uthaimin, the Islamic spirit within students largely depends on the teachers and their knowledge and conduct. Teachers who embody this spirit can effectively nurture it in their students.
Then comes the role of the society that is based on virtue. It assists in promoting goodness, condemns evil, distances itself from those who engage in it, and tightens the social bonds around them. We can see this in the biography of the Prophet Muhammad, (Peace be upon him), when he ordered people to boycott those who had lagged behind from participating in the Tabuk expedition. Their punishment was social isolation until they repented to Allah. (He turned in mercy also) to the three who were left behind; (they felt guilty) to such a degree that the earth seemed constrained to them, for all its spaciousness, and their (very) souls seemed straitened to them,- and they perceived that there is no fleeing from Allah (and no refuge) but to Himself. Then He turned to them, that they might repent: for Allah is Oft-Returning, Most Merciful.” [Surah at-Tawbah, 118]
In this way, Islamic law focuses on nurturing and reforming the individual throughout all stages of their life. It provides them with noble Islamic values, guides them towards high moral standards, instills faith in their hearts, and directs them towards goodness while steering their thinking away from evil and corruption.
Undoubtedly, true faith and sincere conviction serve as a strong fortress and a protective barrier against committing indecent acts and violating prohibitions. Genuine faith is what guides towards the right path, and hearts filled with faith, relying on Allah, provide no openings for the devil to enter. As they say:
“Faith is the source of virtues, the bridle of vices, the foundation of conscience, and the strong bond between humanity and its noble values.” [See Islamic Guidance for Youth, page 38]
This faith is the barrier between a person and evil, because the believer knows with absolute certainty that Allah is watching over them. No matter how hidden their actions may be from people, they cannot escape Allah’s knowledge. If they evade worldly punishment, they will not escape the punishment of the Hereafter. The Messenger of Allah (Peace be upon him) said:
“The adulterer is not a believer at the moment when he is committing adultery. The wine drinker is not a believer at the moment when he is drinking wine. The thief is not a believer at the moment when he is stealing. The robber is not a believer at the moment when he is robbing and people are looking on.” [Bukhari and Muslim]
Dear servants of Allah! One of the results of education in the history of Islamic society is that crime has been confined to the narrowest of limits, even after the Islamic society deviated significantly from the comprehensive meaning of Islam. However, it has remained one of the least deviant societies among human societies to this day. Sheikh Abu Zahrah states:
“A single glance at the state of a community that applies Shari’ah law and the level of security within it, compared to a city in Europe teeming with people who have torn apart the bonds of law because it is a human-made construct, and among them, you’ll find a lack of belief in it, demonstrates to us the impact of faith in people’s hearts.”
This perspective shows us that crime correlates inversely with civilisation. In communities that follow heavenly laws, as urbanisation increases alongside faith, hearts become more refined, and crime decreases. In the Islamic civilisation during the time of the Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) and the era of the Companions, crimes went in the opposite direction to the growth of Islamic civilisation. As civilisation expanded, crime decreased.
All praise is due to Allah, Lord of the worlds. May the peace, blessings and salutations of Allah be upon our noble Messenger, Muhammad (Peace be upon him), and upon his family, his Companions and his true followers.
Murtadha Muhammad Gusau is the Chief Imam of: Nagazi-Uvete Jumu’ah Mosque; and Late Alhaji Abdur-Rahman Okene Mosque, Okene, Kogi State, Nigeria. He can be reached via: gusauimam@gmail.com; or +2348038289761.
This Friday sermon (Jumu’ah Khutbah) was prepared for delivery today Friday, 13 Jumadal Ula, 1446 AH (November 15, 2024).
By Abiodun Alade
If there’s one burning question on the minds of Nigerians these days, it’s this: why are we paying between N1,000 and N1,500 for a litre of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)?
Sadly, the very people who should be explaining this strange new reality have decided to stay tight-lipped with heads buried in the sand like ostriches. Meanwhile, those who have been milking the country’s oil wealth while keeping its four refineries comatose – have been busy peddling a lot of dubious narratives to discredit Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Apparently, some people would rather pull the wool over our eyes than let us see the real picture.
Let’s get one thing straight: the Dangote Refinery is not to blame for the price of PMS in Nigeria. In fact, without this refinery, we might be staring at petrol prices as high as N2,500 a litre – just like the recent strident gloomy predictions from oil marketers and analysts.
The real culprits in this price mess are the oil cabals and their cosy friends at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL). These folks are busy trying to spin the tale that locally refined products are somehow more expensive than imported fuel, which, in their view, justifies the ongoing need to import fuel and keep those highly subsidised prices intact. Let’s pause for a moment and ask: since when did importing fuel become a better deal than refining it locally? That’s like paying extra for a loaf of bread because someone else baked it in their oven… miles away.
As with all global refineries, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doesn’t set pump prices for petroleum products. Those decisions, much to the chagrin of the refinery’s critics, are based on market dynamics, government policies, and, the influence of some very powerful individuals. The real reason for the recent hike in petrol prices is a simple equation: subsidy removal plus the floating of the Naira.
As recently as August, reports showed that the NNPCL was selling petrol at half the actual cost of imported fuel. Officially, the pump price was N568 per litre, but the true landing cost was a shocking N1,100 per litre. So, the NNPC was generously “subsidising” fuel imports by almost N600 per litre – subsidising, that is, until the entire scheme became too expensive to sustain. So, naturally, prices were hiked to N855 per litre.
And here’s the kicker: the Federal Government racked up an eye-watering N5.1 trillion in under-recovery and energy security expenses on fuel imports in 2023. Guess where that money came from? The same pockets that should have been filled with healthcare, education, and infrastructure funds. Instead, we were left with an empty wallet and a bill that was too big to ignore.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Guyana – the third-smallest sovereign state in the world, is generously handing out $100,000 cash grants to its adult citizens as part of its oil boom, while Nigeria – the most populous black nation on Earth – is amassing foreign debt to pay for fuel subsidies.
If the pricing template used to offset imported petrol costs was applied to products from Dangote Refinery, the price of petrol could be much lower than what we’re seeing today – possibly as low as N500 per litre. That’s right, N500. But of course, the government, apparently has decided not to restore the subsidies. After all, what was once intended as relief for the people has now turned into a siphoning operation.
According to a report by The Guardian Newspapers in October, oil marketers are making an extra 48% profit by smuggling petrol out of Nigeria to neighbouring countries, where the price is far higher. In Mali, the price is N2,266 per litre, in Cote d’Ivoire it’s N2,289, in Cameroon N2,196, and in Benin Republic N1,779. No surprises there, then, that daily PMS consumption in Nigeria keeps rising. And if the oil cabals get their way, we’ll be looking at a whopping 103 million litres per day – just like we saw in 2022.
The government is, understandably, trying to keep local prices aligned with those in neighbouring countries to curb smuggling. But honestly, until the greedy cabals are shown the red card and we finally declare that “business as usual” is over, the government strategy is dead on arrival.
While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Naira-for-Crude initiative is certainly a step in the right direction, the floating of the Naira is still keeping petrol prices stubbornly high. Why? Crude oil is priced in dollars, so domestic refiners, including the Dangote Refinery, are still paying the exact dollar amount for crude, but now in Naira. And when you convert dollar to Naira, it’s expensive. For instance, a mere $90 per barrel now translates to over N150,000.
Currently, a litre of Nigerian crude costs between N890 and N910, before factoring in refining and logistics costs. So, what’s the magic number? How much can a refinery – domestic or foreign – realistically sell a litre of refined petrol for? That’s the million-naira question!
With the Naira-for-Crude policy, the expectation is that the Naira will stabilise over time. If that happens, petrol prices should eventually fall. Imagine, if the Naira strengthens to N1,000 to the dollar – the price of petrol could drop significantly. That’s what every genuine, patriotic Nigerian should be rooting for – not chasing after mythical dollars that only serve to put more pressure on the Naira.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, proudly stated that the government would earn about N700 billion monthly from the sale of crude in Naira and from the subsidy removal policies, compared to the $600 million it was previously spending on fuel imports. So, let’s do the math: one option helps the people, the other helps the oil cartels. No prizes for guessing which one benefits Nigeria in the long run.
Of course, the oil cabals won’t see the benefits because it will take away their free access to wealth, allowing them to continue living their best lives. Isn’t it funny that these same marketers who have been crying about petrol prices because of a lack of local refining capacity are now saying it’s cheaper to import fuel than to refine it here? Where were they when the government was doling out trillions for the turnaround maintenance of refineries? Suddenly, the landing cost of imports, which was as high as N1,400 per litre, has magically dropped to under N1,000. How convenient!
It’s clear that the cartels have been blending off-spec fuel while collecting subsidies for “premium” products. Or perhaps they’ve been stealing crude and blending it abroad – after all, crude theft in Nigeria is a well-known business, especially when it’s done using large vessels under the radar.
Already, Nigerians are seeing the benefits of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in reducing the prices of other petroleum products like diesel and aviation fuel by over 45% and 35% respectively. Naturally, this earned Dangote a fair bit of flak from the oil cabals, who promptly wrote to President Tinubu, complaining that this “patriotic man” was ruining their business by alleviating the suffering of the people. Whoever knew that doing something good for the public could be so controversial?
Nevertheless, we’re confident that a similar reduction in PMS prices will follow once local refining capacity is fully embraced and stakeholders start putting Nigeria’s interests ahead of their own pockets. After all, if it works for diesel and aviation fuel, surely it’s not too much to ask that petrol prices follow suit – unless, of course, the oil cartels have a different agenda.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has chosen to rise above the noise, urging all stakeholders to put the nation’s progress and the welfare of its people above personal gains. Unfortunately, some prefer to keep spreading falsehoods about a private investment that is designed to propel Nigeria towards economic self-sufficiency.
For those still sceptical, I’ll say this: the Aliko Dangote I know is not the type to bow to propaganda, hate, or lies – especially when it’s all in defence of Nigeria’s national interest and the development of Africa.
Abiodun writes from Lagos
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