Opinion
Kano 2027: Beyond the Noise, Let the Numbers and Structures Speak
By Aliyu Isa Aliyu, Ph.D
As the 2027 general elections draw closer, political conversations in Kano are increasingly dominated by competing claims about which party has the stronger machinery and which political bloc is better positioned to win the state.
Much of the debate, however, is driven by sentiment, personality politics and social media narratives. A more useful approach would be to examine the numbers, electoral history, political structures and the movement of key actors across the political divide.
The Kano of 2019 was not the Kano of 2023. And the political configuration approaching 2027 is different from both.
Before making my argument, I believe it is important to put my political background on record—not as a credential, but to establish that my assessment is informed by some firsthand experience of the political structures under discussion.
My Kwankwasiyya journey did not begin in 2012 after I benefited from a foreign scholarship. It dates much further back.
My late father, Alhaji Isa Aliyu Danzabuwa, was a politician known to many in Kano’s political circles, particularly those associated with Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. From the early 1990s until his death in 2005, I grew up seeing politicians, especially from Bichi, regularly visit our home.
If political commitment could be inherited, I would say politics is in my blood.
My active participation in partisan politics began in 2007, when Hon. Ahmad Garba Bichi was the PDP governorship candidate. Ahead of the 2011 elections, I also worked actively for the victory of the PDP and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, then the party’s governorship candidate.
As a young graduate, I served as a polling-unit agent at Shagari Quarters and participated in Kwankwasiyya’s “Dawo-Dawo” rallies across several local government areas under the coordination of the late Alhaji Balarabe Musa Kalla, the late Mustapha Sani Kabara and Hon. Mustapha Buhari Bakwana, alongside friends and colleagues including Akibu Isa Murtala, Bashir Ali Usman, Badaru Auwalu Yola and Abba Ben Umar, among others.
On election day, we spent the night at Guringawa Ward and later slept at the INEC office in Kumbotso Local Government Area before accompanying the ballot boxes to the state INEC office. I was also part of the celebration that followed the victory, beginning at Senator Kwankwaso’s Gandu residence.
We did these things without expecting appointments, contracts or personal benefits. We were motivated largely by the belief that the government we were helping to bring to power would provide better governance.
That experience gave me an opportunity to see, from the grassroots, how political mobilisation, organisation and electoral structures worked within the Kwankwasiyya movement.
It is from that perspective that I approach the 2027 question—not with hostility towards any political movement, but with an attempt to examine the available facts.
The Kano of 2019
The argument that APC has never had sufficient political strength in Kano does not stand up well against the electoral record.
In the 2019 presidential election, the APC candidate polled 1,464,768 votes in Kano State, compared with 391,593 votes for the PDP.
More significantly, the APC won all 24 National Assembly seats in the state.
At the state level, the APC won 30 of the 40 State House of Assembly seats and secured victory in 28 of the 44 local government areas in the initial governorship election.
Although the party trailed by 26,655 votes before the supplementary election, it eventually won the governorship by 8,982 votes.
These figures are important because they challenge the simplistic assumption that Kano elections are determined exclusively by the popularity of a single political personality.
If personality alone determined electoral outcomes, the PDP, led in Kano by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso at the time, would arguably not have suffered such a comprehensive defeat in 2019.
The lesson from that election is that political popularity matters, but so do party structures, organisation, alliances, resources and the ability to translate political support into votes.
What Changed in 2023?
The political landscape changed dramatically before the 2023 elections.
The APC presidential candidate received 517,341 votes in Kano State—a substantial decline from the party’s 2019 presidential tally.
The party also suffered major losses in the National and State Assembly elections.
In Kano Central, the APC lost all 11 House of Representatives seats to the NNPP. It also lost one seat in Kano North and five in Kano South. At the State Assembly level, the party lost 17 seats to the NNPP.
In the governorship election, the NNPP defeated the APC by 128,897 votes.
That was a significant margin, and the result should not be minimised. But it is equally important to understand the circumstances in which the election took place.
The APC entered the 2023 election deeply weakened by internal divisions and the departure of several influential politicians.
Among those who left the party, particularly in Kano South, were figures such as Hon. Kawu Sumaila, Hon. Kabiru Alhassan, Gwani Ali Bukar Makoda, Hon. Safiyanu Harbau and others.
Similar political losses occurred in Kano North and Kano Central, including the departure of former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who continued to command considerable political influence through the Shura movement.
These defections did more than change party membership. They transferred political experience, grassroots networks, mobilisers and organisational structures from one political camp to another.
In other words, the 2023 election was fought with an APC that had lost some of its most important political assets, while its principal opponent had gained many of them.
That distinction is crucial when comparing 2023 with 2027.
The Political Equation Heading Into 2027
The political equation has changed again.
The defection of the serving governor and a considerable number of his political associates has altered the balance of political structures across Kano’s 44 local government areas.
Several structures associated with the Kwankwasiyya political family—including CRC, Kano Proper, scholars, Lafiya Jari, Kwankwasiyya, NNPP and Option A structures, Jagorori, LGA caucuses, interstate teams and contact committees—have experienced significant defections.
Based on my knowledge of some of these structures, I estimate that a substantial proportion of their members have moved to the APC, with some structures losing as much as 70 per cent of their personnel.
That estimate can, of course, be debated and should ideally be tested against independently verifiable membership and electoral data. But the broader phenomenon is difficult to ignore: political actors and grassroots organisers who previously operated within one camp are now increasingly distributed across another.
These are not merely names on a list.
Political structures are valuable because they consist of people who know the wards, polling units and communities; people who understand voter mobilisation; people who can coordinate agents; and people who have established relationships with local political actors.
Such networks take years to build.
The movement of prominent political figures has also been substantial.
Among those who have moved away from the Kwankwasiyya camp are Ahmad Garba Bichi, Audu Kirare, Dayyabu Maiturare, Baffa Sani Gaya, Ali Bukar Makoda, Isiyaku Ali Danja, Dr Danyaro Yakasai, Surajo Harisu Danbatta, Umar Haruna Doguwa, Gambo Sallau, Garba Hungu, Yusuf Ogan Boye, Dr Baffa Bichi, Hamza Maifata, Muhammad Ahmad, Butu-Butu of Rimin Gado, Tijjani Abdulkadir Jobe, Ali Madaki and many others.
The significance of these movements should not be assessed merely by the number of political leaders involved. Their importance lies in the networks that accompany them.
A politician who changes parties may bring with him political organisers, ward leaders, supporters, campaign coordinators and longstanding relationships.
This was precisely what happened to the APC ahead of the 2023 election when several of its influential figures defected to the opposition.
The difference now is that the direction of movement appears to have changed.
Structures Matter
One of the mistakes political observers often make is to confuse social-media visibility with electoral strength.
A party can dominate online conversations and still struggle at the polling unit.
Conversely, a political organisation may generate relatively little noise online while maintaining an extensive grassroots network.
Elections are ultimately conducted at polling units.
Between the political speech and the final result lies an enormous organisational chain: voters must be identified and mobilised; campaign structures must function; polling agents must be recruited and trained; transportation and communication must be coordinated; results must be collated and monitored; and political alliances must remain intact until the final declaration.
This is why political structures matter.
The 2027 contest in Kano should therefore not be reduced to the question of which politician is more popular or which party has the louder supporters online.
The more important questions are: Who controls the grassroots structures? Who has functional ward and polling-unit networks? Who can mobilise voters? Who can maintain those structures throughout the campaign? Who can coordinate election-day operations? And, ultimately, who can convert political support into actual votes?
The Numbers Must Speak
None of this means that the APC has already won Kano.
Elections are not won by historical comparisons alone, and political structures can change rapidly.
The APC will still have to manage its own internal contradictions, accommodate its new entrants, maintain cohesion and convince voters that its platform deserves their support.
Likewise, the NNPP and Kwankwasiyya should not be written off. They retain significant political assets, loyal supporters and a political identity that has been built over many years.
But acknowledging those strengths should not prevent an honest assessment of the changes that have occurred.
The central point is simple: 2027 is not 2023.
The APC that contested Kano in 2023 is not necessarily the APC that will contest Kano in 2027. Similarly, the political structure that propelled the NNPP to victory in 2023 is not exactly the same structure approaching the next election.
The movement of political actors has altered the equation.
Therefore, anyone attempting to predict the outcome of the 2027 Kano election should look beyond political noise, emotional attachment and social-media trends.
History provides the context. Numbers provide evidence. Structures provide the machinery. Alliances provide additional strength. And voters ultimately provide the verdict.
The most responsible way to analyse Kano 2027 is therefore not to ask who is making the most noise, but who has the numbers, the structures, the organisation and the capacity to turn political support into votes.
When the votes are eventually cast and counted, it will not be social media that determines the winner.
The numbers will speak.
Aliyu Isa Aliyu, Ph.D, is a commissioner Ministry of Livestock Development, Kano State.
Imam Murtadha Gusau
The killing of Katsina-based Islamic preacher Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka should serve as a warning against the dangers of religious extremism, sectarian hostility and the reckless attribution of blame before investigations are concluded.
Sheikh Masussuka was reportedly shot dead alongside his associate, Adamu Abubakar, by gunmen in Dutsin-Ma, Katsina State, on Monday, October 26, 2026. His death has generated tension, with allegations circulating on social media and among religious circles that members of Ahlus-Sunnah wal-Jama’ah, particularly the Salafiyyah and Izalah movements, were responsible.
Those allegations have been complicated by an audio statement in which the terrorist group Ansaru reportedly claimed responsibility for the killings. The group was also reported to have cited Masussuka’s religious views, advocacy for interfaith dialogue and condemnation of violent extremism among its grievances against him.
These claims must be properly investigated and independently established. However, they underscore an important point: religious disagreements, however intense, must never become a licence for violence, and suspicion must never be mistaken for proof.
The danger of collective blame
Masussuka was a controversial religious figure whose Qur’an-centred teachings, including his rejection of the authority of Prophetic Hadith, brought him into theological disagreements with mainstream Islamic scholars.
In November 2025, he reportedly petitioned the Katsina State Government over alleged insults and threats from members of the Izalah movement. Such a history of disagreement may explain why some people quickly suspected his religious opponents after his killing. It does not, however, establish their responsibility for the crime.
In a society where religious identity can easily become a source of division, the temptation to blame an entire movement for the actions of individuals is dangerous. It can inflame tensions, provoke retaliation and endanger innocent people.
No religious group should be held collectively responsible for a crime without credible evidence. Equally, no individual or organisation should be shielded from investigation merely because of its religious affiliation or public standing.
The appropriate response to the killing is a thorough, impartial investigation that identifies the perpetrators, establishes their motives and brings those found culpable to justice.
The Katsina State Police Command and other relevant authorities must be allowed to carry out their responsibilities without pressure from partisan interests or religious factions. Members of the public, meanwhile, should resist the temptation to spread unverified allegations or mobilise others against people they suspect.
Justice cannot be secured through rumours, online accusations or reprisals. It requires evidence, due process and the courage to accept the outcome of a credible investigation.
Islam’s position on the sanctity of life
As a Muslim, I consider the protection of innocent life a fundamental obligation. The deliberate killing of an innocent person is a grave offence, and no interpretation of religion should be used to justify murder, intimidation or acts of terror.
Allah says in the Qur’an:
“Whoever kills a soul unless for a soul or for corruption done in the land—it is as if he had slain mankind entirely. And whoever saves one—it is as if he had saved mankind entirely.” (Qur’an 5:32)
This teaching places an enormous moral responsibility on every believer. Human life cannot be treated as disposable simply because someone holds a different opinion, belongs to another religious group or challenges a particular interpretation of scripture.
The Qur’an also instructs Muslims to invite people to the way of their Lord with wisdom and good counsel, and to engage them in the best possible manner (Qur’an 16:125).
This principle is particularly important when religious differences become contentious. Disagreement should be addressed through scholarship, dialogue and reasoned argument—not threats, intimidation or violence.
Ahlus-Sunnah wal-Jama’ah, like other Muslim communities, should be judged by the conduct of its adherents and the teachings they uphold, rather than by allegations that have not been established. Those who identify with the Sunnah must demonstrate through their conduct that their commitment to the faith is inseparable from justice, mercy and respect for human life.
At the same time, the rejection of terrorism must be universal. Violence does not become acceptable because its perpetrators claim to defend a religious cause, and no group can acquire immunity from scrutiny by invoking Islam.
Knowledge must defeat extremism
One of the most effective ways of confronting religious extremism is to promote sound Islamic scholarship and responsible religious leadership.
The history of Islam offers examples of scholars who confronted dangerous interpretations through knowledge and dialogue. Abdullah ibn Abbas, a Companion of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), is widely remembered in Islamic tradition for engaging the Khawarij, an early extremist group, in theological argument and challenging their interpretations of religious texts.
The lesson is that mistaken beliefs should be confronted with evidence, patience and sound scholarship. Violence against people suspected of holding erroneous views only deepens division and makes peaceful engagement more difficult.
Religious leaders therefore have a special responsibility to ensure that their sermons, teachings and public statements do not encourage hatred or legitimise harm against others. They must distinguish between correcting an idea and attacking the dignity or safety of the person who holds it.
This responsibility extends to social media, where provocative messages and unverified allegations can spread rapidly. Religious disputes that might otherwise remain confined to scholarly discussions can become public confrontations when users circulate inflammatory claims without checking their accuracy.
Muslims should refuse to participate in online campaigns that dehumanise opponents, encourage collective punishment or portray entire communities as enemies. The pursuit of truth requires intellectual honesty, while the defence of religion requires good character.
The Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) is reported to have said that a Muslim is one from whose tongue and hand other people are safe. This teaching offers a practical standard by which believers should assess their conduct.
If our words expose innocent people to threats, or our actions endanger their lives, we must examine whether we are truly reflecting the values we profess.
Mercy is not weakness
The distinction between religious conviction and religious intolerance must be clearly understood. A person can hold firmly to a theological position without insulting, threatening or persecuting those who disagree.
Indeed, mercy does not require Muslims to abandon their beliefs. It requires them to uphold those beliefs without violating the rights of others.
The Prophet’s conduct provides a model of restraint and compassion. In a well-known account in Sahih al-Bukhari, a Bedouin urinated in the Prophet’s Mosque, prompting some Companions to react angrily. The Prophet instructed them to leave the man alone and have the affected area cleaned, explaining that people had been sent to make matters easier, not harder.
The lesson is not that wrongdoing should be ignored. Rather, correction should be proportionate, informed and directed towards addressing the problem instead of humiliating or destroying the person responsible.
This approach is relevant to contemporary religious disagreements. A person who expresses a controversial interpretation of Islam should be answered with knowledge and appropriate dialogue. Where conduct violates the law, the authorities should respond through lawful procedures. Neither theological disagreement nor public anger justifies private punishment.
Similarly, allegations of blasphemy, disbelief or deviation must not be treated as permission for individuals to take the law into their own hands. Accusations of this nature can have devastating consequences and must never become instruments for settling personal scores or advancing sectarian interests.
A responsibility shared by leaders and citizens
The killing of Sheikh Masussuka demands more than condemnation. It calls for a collective commitment to prevent further violence.
The police must investigate the killings professionally and pursue those responsible. Religious leaders must calm their followers and reject attempts to exploit the tragedy. Political and community leaders must discourage inflammatory rhetoric, while media organisations and social media users must verify information before publishing or sharing it.
The government should also pay attention to the conditions that allow extremist groups to recruit, intimidate communities and spread violent ideologies. Effective security measures must be accompanied by credible religious education, community engagement and opportunities for young people to seek guidance from knowledgeable and responsible scholars.
Above all, the authorities must ensure that the pursuit of justice does not become a pretext for harassment or reprisals against innocent people.
The killing of one person must not lead to the persecution of another. Nor should the grief of a victim’s family be exploited to deepen divisions within the Muslim community.
Ahlus-Sunnah wal-Jama’ah adherents have a responsibility to reject violence committed in the name of Islam and to demonstrate that their commitment to the Sunnah is reflected in patience, compassion and respect for justice. Other religious communities and ideological groups have the same obligation to reject violence and hold their members accountable for wrongdoing.
The protection of innocent life is not the exclusive responsibility of one sect. It is a shared moral and civic duty.
Justice, not vengeance
The circumstances surrounding Sheikh Masussuka’s death must be established through a credible investigation. If Ansaru’s reported claim of responsibility is substantiated, the group’s involvement must be confronted through lawful security and judicial measures. If evidence implicates any other individuals, they too must answer for their actions.
Until then, Nigerians must resist the urge to turn suspicion into certainty or religious disagreement into collective condemnation.
The true test of religious commitment is not the intensity with which one denounces opponents, but the willingness to uphold truth and justice even when emotions run high. Faith should encourage self-restraint, protect human dignity and inspire people to seek peaceful solutions to their differences.
Nigeria has already paid a heavy price for violence driven by extremism and communal suspicion. The country cannot afford to allow another killing to become a trigger for fresh hostility.
Let the death of Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka strengthen, rather than weaken, our resolve to protect innocent lives, promote responsible religious dialogue and ensure that every allegation is tested against evidence.
Islam must not be used as a cover for terrorism, and religious disagreement must never become an excuse for murder. The path forward is clear: reject extremism, condemn false accusations, protect the innocent and allow justice to take its course.
Imam Murtadha Muhammad Gusau is the Chief Imam of Nagazi-Uvete Jumu’ah Mosque and the late Alhaji Abdur-Rahman Okene’s Mosque, Okene, Kogi State, Nigeria.
Prof Ibrahim Bello-Kano (IBK)
Malam Ibrahim Mu’azzam is arguably the most influential person and university teacher in my academic and intellectual development. Although I studied Sociology rather than Political Science, I audited his courses and attended his lectures throughout my early and later undergraduate years.
One of the qualities that distinguished him then, and which he has retained to this day, is his charismatic personality and the natural attraction he exerts on students through his wide-ranging knowledge, teaching expertise and remarkable ability to inspire intellectual curiosity. Students passionate about ideas and critical thinking were always drawn to his approach to introducing complex concepts to an often bewildered classroom.
Malam Mu’azzam, as we fondly call him, was a magnet for ideas and a model of critical intellectual engagement. In those days, he probably had one of the largest personal libraries or private studies. Scores of undergraduate and postgraduate students trooped to his home, which he moved to after leaving the university quarters.
We marvelled at his extraordinary collection of books spanning numerous disciplines, far beyond his formal academic specialisation and teaching responsibilities. His study contained, and continues to contain, books on a wide range of subjects, including the philosophy of science, theology, education, English, linguistics and, of course, classic and highly acclaimed works in the social sciences, Political Science and Geography.
I still remember an incident in 1988 when Malam and I travelled to the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, for an Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) delegates’ conference. I accompanied him to the university bookshop and watched him purchase books across a variety of academic disciplines. That experience inspired me to follow his example by building a collection of books from different fields—a habit I have sustained to this day.
Despite his formal retirement after a long career at Bayero University, Kano (BUK), Malam remains intellectually active. He continues to work with us at the Ibrahim Mu’azzam Institute of Philosophy, organised by the Centre for Information Technology and Development (CITAD).
His continued engagement is a remarkable testament to his enduring contributions to teaching, critical scholarship and the advancement of knowledge within and beyond the academic community. Malam Mu’azzam’s influence extends far beyond the classroom, inspiring generations of students and scholars to embrace intellectual curiosity, independent thought and lifelong learning.
Prof Ibrahim Bello-Kano (IBK), teaches at Bayero University, Kano.
Mustapha Muhammad
As the 2027 general elections draw nearer, the signs pointing towards a possible victory for Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf in his bid for a second term as Executive Governor of Kano State are becoming clearer by the day. The road, once fraught with political obstacles, conflicts, and challenges, appears to be clearing rapidly. Victory is increasingly within sight, God willing.
The foundation of Governor Yusuf’s political momentum rests on his administration’s performance, astute political manoeuvring, successful consensus-building during party primaries, and proactive reconciliation efforts. By bringing key political figures from Kano’s three senatorial districts—South, North, and Central—under one umbrella, coupled with the perceived decline in the influence of the Kwankwasiyya movement following widespread defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Yusuf has positioned himself favourably ahead of the forthcoming election.
He stands out among the contenders for the Kano governorship. His political resilience and strategic departure from what he considers the troubled waters of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) demonstrate his ability to navigate complex political challenges in pursuit of victory.
Below are some of the key factors driving Governor Yusuf’s political momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Transformative Governance and Administrative Scorecard
Over the past three years, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has implemented people-oriented projects and policies aimed at improving the lives of Kano residents across critical sectors.
Educational Revitalisation
Increased budgetary allocation: Funding for education rose from 29.5 per cent in 2024 to 30.5 per cent in 2025 and reached 31.5 per cent in 2026, out of a total state budget exceeding ₦1.47 trillion.
Massive recruitment: Nearly 20,000 teachers, including personnel recruited under the Kano State Better Education for All (BESDA) initiative, were employed to address critical teacher shortages in classrooms.
Infrastructure upgrades: Nearly 400 schools across the state’s 44 local government areas (LGAs) have undergone complete renovation, alongside ongoing construction projects.
Academic excellence: Kano State led national performance rankings in the National Examinations Council (NECO) examinations in 2025 and 2026. In 2026, the state produced 74,413 candidates who obtained at least five credits, including English Language and Mathematics, surpassing Lagos State, with 72,496 candidates, and Oyo State, with 55,543.
Healthcare Modernisation and Pension Delivery
Primary healthcare overhaul: More than 340 primary healthcare centres across the 44 LGAs have been renovated.
Hospital expansion: At least 10 new general hospitals have been constructed in underserved LGAs, while work is ongoing on six additional facilities to ensure that every LGA has a dedicated general hospital.
Modern equipment: Health facilities have been equipped with CT scanners, dialysis units, ultrasound machines, and automated laboratory analysers.
Settlement of pension arrears: Of the inherited ₦48 billion backlog of pension and gratuity liabilities, the administration has disbursed more than ₦32 billion to retirees.
Agricultural Development and Rural Infrastructure
Farm mechanisation and subsidies: The state procured 98 tractors and 48 combine harvesters while introducing a 50 per cent fertiliser subsidy programme across all LGAs.
Irrigation expansion: The rehabilitation of the Watari Irrigation Scheme expanded irrigation coverage by 1,000 hectares, with the aim of boosting year-round agricultural production.
Road networks and urban renewal: Eighteen of the 34 planned five-kilometre rural road projects have been completed, with solar streetlights installed. In addition, 12 of the 24 planned urban renewal road projects, covering approximately 76 kilometres, have been delivered.
Bridge reconstruction: The Kubaraci-Kura Bridge was restored, reopening important economic and transportation corridors.
Empowerment and Skills Acquisition
Social safety nets: Monthly stipends of ₦50,000 are provided to 5,200 women, while grants of ₦150,000 have been distributed to youths across the state.
Entrepreneurship: Twenty-six technical and entrepreneurship institutes have been revitalised to provide practical vocational training and equip beneficiaries with relevant skills.
Political Realignment and Party Unity
Governor Yusuf demonstrated political foresight by defecting to the All Progressives Congress (APC). His decision, in the view of his supporters, was timely and strategically informed by the need to secure his political future.
The subsequent defections from the NNPP by members of the Kwankwasiyya movement have, according to this argument, strengthened the case for his political realignment. The move also positioned him and his supporters within a political platform they consider more advantageous ahead of the 2027 elections.
Furthermore, as the state’s APC leader, Governor Yusuf successfully managed the consensus process during the party primaries, resulting in what supporters described as a “no victor, no vanquished” outcome.
His ongoing reconciliation efforts have also helped bring political stakeholders from Kano’s three senatorial districts together, strengthening the prospect of a united political front ahead of the 2027 polls.
With his administration’s reported achievements, political realignment, and reconciliation efforts, Governor Yusuf’s supporters believe he is well positioned to secure a second term in office.
No doubt, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Executive Governor of Kano State, is traversing the path to victory in the 2027 general elections.
Mustapha Muhammad is the Chief Press Secretary to the Executive Governor of Kano State, Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf. He writes from Kano.
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